September 2, 2025 – When Jamaicans head to the polls on September 3, 2025, they will do so in one of the most finely balanced elections in recent history. Depending on which pollster you believe, the contest between the incumbent Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP) is either tipping towards Andrew Holness’ governing team or drifting in Mark Golding’s favour. What is certain is that the outcome rests not just on undecided voters, but on how many Jamaicans, at home and abroad, can be stirred to participate in a system long plagued by apathy.

The Poll Wars

The latest Don Anderson poll gives the PNP a narrow lead at 37.6%, with the JLP close behind on 34.5%. Notably, voter apathy characterizes the poll, as nearly a quarter of voters remain undecided, and enthusiasm among young voters is low.  

In sharp contrast, the Blue Dot/NNN poll suggests the JLP is not only holding firm but gaining, with Andrew Holness enjoying a 17-point lead over Mark Golding in favourability ratings and dominance across all age groups. An interesting component of the poll was that Prime Minister Holness has increased his positive perception among women at a time when the PNP had lost its most popular female member, Lisa Hanna, who retired from active politics.

One poll suggests a PNP revival, while the other indicates JLP momentum. What both agree on is that Jamaica is deeply divided, its voters are cautious and skeptical, and its democracy is very much alive.

The Issues at Stake

Having followed the ebbs and flows of the Jamaican economy and politics, several issues emerge as central to tomorrow’s polls. 

The Economy

For the majority of Jamaicans, the cost of living and economic opportunity remain pressing.  Natural shocks and climate threats have tipped Jamaica into a technical economic recession. The impact of Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Raphael continues to negatively impact economic output in 2025.  Furthermore, significant resources had to be diverted to implement a drought mitigation plan to mitigate the losses in the key agricultural sector. 

Beyond the economic downturn, Jamaicans are focused on what the numbers mean for their everyday lives. Food and fuel costs still strain households despite the downturn in inflation since the last election. According to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), inflation has trended downwards from a high of 10 percent in 2022, to 6.5 percent in 2023, 5.4 percent in 2024, and is now stabilizing near 3.3 percent as at July 2025.   

The exchange rate has held relatively steady, hovering near J$160 to US$1 in late August 2025. This stability has prevented fresh waves of imported inflation. But with Jamaica’s reliance on imports, any sharp depreciation could quickly erode hard-won stability.

Job creation continues at a modest pace. STATIN data estimates that, for the first quarter of 2025, GDP expanded by just 1.1 percent, suggesting a steady increase in full-time employment since the last election. Between 2015 and 2022, the number of full-time jobs increased by approximately 143,000, while part-time work declined. Although the recession has slowed momentum, many Jamaicans are experiencing more stable employment than they did a decade ago.

For voters, these numbers translate into lived contradictions. The relief of easing inflation, offset by the frustration of stagnant growth, and the availability of more stable jobs, is tempered by the fear that adverse climate action could derail the needed and valued progress. Fitch Ratings’ affirmation of Jamaica’s BB- rating with a positive outlook is a vote of international confidence, but in hand-to-mouth economics, Jamaicans still weigh survival against resilience.

Crime and Security

Jamaica’s murder rate, historically one of the highest in the world, has fallen sharply, with official figures showing a 37 percent drop in homicides this year. The government credits states of emergency, targeted policing, and stronger community programmes. But the celebration is tempered by a 152 percent surge in fatal police shootings, a figure critics argue reflects heavy-handed tactics. With little accountability for the police actions, advocates warn of an increased risk for distrust in law enforcement, especially in inner-city communities. For voters, this tension is real: safety feels closer, but at the cost of fear of the very forces sworn to protect.

Constitutional Reform

Both the JLP and PNP agree on removing the British monarch as Jamaica’s head of state, but the timeline and method differ. The Holness administration has promised a referendum by 2026, tying it to a broader constitutional overhaul. The PNP, while supportive, has accused the government of dragging its feet and pursuing reform in a piecemeal fashion. Civil society groups warn that without bipartisan commitment, Jamaica risks a hollow transition, swapping the Crown without tackling more profound questions of governance, rights, and representation. Media pundits in Jamaica have suggested that on the current path, the country could transition to a republic in name only.

Turnout and Trust

Jamaican democracy has long been plagued by low voter participation: only 37 percent of eligible voters turned out in the 2020 general election, the lowest turnout since independence. 2025 could see a rebound, with tight polls and spirited campaigning that have captured support beyond the shores. Yet enthusiasm remains fragile. Young voters are disengaged, and polls suggest that fewer than one in three plan to cast a ballot. By and large, there is deeply rooted voter apathy driven by a larger decades-long cynicism that neither party offers transformative change. The turnout will reveal if more Jamaicans are ready to become active participants in the democratic process via the ballot box.

A Diaspora Surge

In an unusual twist, there has been a visible uptick in Jamaicans returning from the diaspora to cast their ballots. The local media and social media forums are reporting stories of Jamaicans returning to vote draped in party colours. Several factors may be driving this trend, including the close connection that more recent migrants have maintained with their homeland and an increase in the willingness of the diaspora to participate in the process, given the significant crime reduction. 

Private Sector Demands Answers

The private sector is less concerned with which party triumphs than with how either intends to govern. Metry Seaga of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica has urged both sides to publish the five-year revenue impacts of their plans, while Catherine Silvera of the Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association was blunt: “Neither [proposal] has clearly outlined how their promises will be achieved.” In an election cycle marked by ambitious pledges, from tax relief to economic expansion, business leaders fear populist rhetoric without fiscal realism.

The Crossroads

Jamaica 2025 feels like a crossroads election: tight enough to hinge on the undecided, weighty enough to shape the nation’s political and constitutional future for decades. The choice belongs to the people. The question is how many will turn up — and what they will demand of those who lead them next.