Washington exported inflation.
St John’s tried to intercept it at the ports.
That is what 2025 really was.

It did not arrive with sirens. There were no emergency press conferences or red-alert budgets. Yet by mid-2025, Antigua and Barbuda was standing on the front line of a global economic conflict it did not start, could not control, and could not avoid.

The United States, resetting its trade policy under President Donald Trump’s second term, imposed sweeping new tariffs across the global trading system. China, parts of Asia, Latin America, and other manufacturing centres were suddenly hit with higher duties. For large economies, it was a strategic recalibration. For small island states like Antigua and Barbuda, it was something far more dangerous: imported inflation.

Almost everything Antiguans consume arrives by ship or plane. And almost everything arrives via the United States. That fragile logistics reality meant that when Washington changed its tariff schedule, the shock did not stop at American borders. It travelled through warehouses in Florida, freight forwarders in Miami, shipping lanes across the Caribbean Sea, and finally into the customs sheds at Deep Water Harbour and the Cargo Division at the V.C. Bird Airport.

By the time goods reached St John’s, they were already more expensive.

“We Are Not Immune Just Because We Don’t Export Much”

That reality was laid bare in a widely discussed interview on the Morning Pointe Show in early April, with host Winston Williams asking how President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement would affect Antigua and Barbuda. “People keep asking, ‘Do we even export anything to the United States?’ But that misses the point; what matters is that almost everything we buy comes through the United States. Even when it’s made in China or Canada or Latin America, it still passes through American ports before it gets here.”

That insight captured the vulnerability at the heart of Antigua’s economy.

Most of the goods Antiguans and Barbudans buy are not made in America. They are made in China, Southeast Asia, Canada, Brazil, and Latin America. Even for goods made in the region, the raw materials come from other regions.  Most items pass through the United States before coming to Antigua and Barbuda and the Caribbean.

That means the same container can now face two tariff walls: first, when it enters the United States from its country of origin, and second, when it enters Antigua and Barbuda.

A shipment of electronics, chicken, tiles, school supplies, or hotel furnishings can now be taxed twice before it ever touches Antiguan soil.

That is how global trade wars become Caribbean cost-of-living crises.

A Small Island Inside a Giant Supply Chain

The interview made another point that went largely unnoticed. “We already run our country on tariffs,” Petra noted. “Customs duties, revenue recovery charges, and ABST on imports are the backbone of our government finances. So, when the US says countries have been applying tariffs to them, we can’t pretend we don’t do the same.”

Antigua and Barbuda does not rely heavily on income tax. It depends on what passes through its ports. That means that when global prices rise, government revenue increases through taxes collected, including customs duties, the revenue recovery tax, the Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax (ABST), and the environmental levy, among others. The increased government revenue pushes up the cost of living through the pass-on mechanism from the importer to the consumer.

And the mechanics of that system matter. Imported inflation compounds itself.

How ABST Really Works at the Port

When goods enter Antigua & Barbuda, ABST is not calculated on what you paid online or on an invoice. It is calculated on the CIF value (cost, insurance, and freight) plus customs duty plus the Revenue Recovery Charge.

Only after those three amounts are added together is ABST applied.

That means that when shipping costs or tariffs rise, the entire tax base increases before ABST is calculated. A higher freight bill or higher duty automatically produces a higher ABST bill, even if the item’s price has not changed. This is why global shipping and tariff shocks compound quickly into local inflation.

The Shipping Squeeze Nobody Escaped

Even before US tariffs fully hit, Antigua and Barbuda was already being squeezed by the rising cost of transporting goods.

FedEx and UPS raised base shipping rates by nearly six percent and increased brokerage fees. Ocean freight operators imposed General Rate Increases on Caribbean routes. Fuel surcharges rose. Handling fees surged. Dimensional weight rules changed. Peak-season container fees of up to US$1,000 were added.

By the time tariffs were layered on, shipping alone had already pushed prices higher.

Table 1 – How 2025 Shipping & Trade Costs Hit Antigua & Barbuda

Area	What Changed in 2025	Practical Effect in Antigua & Barbuda
Ocean Freight	General Rate Increases on Caribbean routes	Higher landed cost for vehicles, building materials, appliances, and retail inventory
Courier Shipping	FedEx and UPS raised base rates and brokerage fees	Mailbox shopping and small business imports became more expensive
Fuel Surcharges	Multiple fuel surcharge increases	Transport and delivery costs rose
Handling & Size Fees	Oversized and additional handling fees increased	Bulky items became more expensive to import
Package Measurement	Dimensional weight rules changed	Same packages billed at higher weights
Peak Season Charges	US$700–$1,000 per container	Importers and supermarkets faced higher costs
US Tariffs	10% baseline tariff applied	Imports became more expensive before reaching Antigua
De Minimis Ended	US$800 duty-free rule removed	Postal and courier shipments disrupted
Environmental Rules	IMO emissions rules increased costs	Shipping lines passed costs on

Two Waves of Imported Inflation

By mid-2025, Antigua and Barbuda was no longer facing a single imported price shock but two. The first came through shipping and logistics. The second arrived through tariffs and trade policy. Together, they created a layered wave of inflation that no single policy lever could stop on its own.

The Quiet War at the Port

“If global prices are going up, then the government has to decide whether it will also take its cut,” Petra observed in April. By mid-year, the government moved into action. 

In July 2025, the Cabinet suspended the CARICOM Common External Tariff on a wide range of essential foods, including butter, potatoes, cooking oils, cereals, canned meats and fish, baby food, and fruits and vegetables, removing an entire layer of regional trade taxes from everyday grocery items. That was followed by the zero-rating of ABST on chicken, fish, milk, cooking oils, dry goods, fresh produce, and medicines, effectively removing the government’s own sales tax from the price of the most common household purchases. 

Alongside this, fuel subsidies were maintained to keep transport and operating costs in check, customs enforcement was tightened to prevent under-declaration and phantom inflation, and price monitoring was implemented to ensure that port-level relief translated into relief on store shelves.

Table 2 – Antigua & Barbuda Policy Response to Rising Import Costs (2025)

Policy Area	What Government Did	Practical Effect
Food Import Tariffs	Suspended CARICOM CET on essentials	Lowered landed cost of groceries
ABST	Zero-rated basic groceries and medicines	Removed sales tax from household purchases
Fuel & Electricity	Maintained subsidies	Stabilised transport and power costs
Customs Enforcement	Stricter inspections and valuation	Prevented under-declaration
Price Monitoring	Retail price tracking	Ensured relief reached consumers
Trade Flow & Logistics	Improved cargo handling	Reduced bottlenecks

A Fiscal Paradox

There was a fiscal paradox at work in 2025. The same shipping and tariff increases that pushed up prices also drove up government revenue. Because the taxes at the point of entry are calculated on rising CIF values, every increase in freight and every increase in tariffs expands the tax base. The result was record collections by the Customs and Excise Department, which almost certainly contributed to the budget surplus later announced by the Prime Minister during the 2026 Budget presentation in December.

Without these policies, the combined US tariff shock and shipping squeeze would have hit Antigua like a blunt instrument, triggering food inflation, spikes in construction costs, surges in tourism operating costs, and contributing to rising social tension. The government built a buffer between the global trade storm and Antiguan and Barbudan households. Prices still rose because that was unavoidable, but they rose more slowly, and hardship still came, but with shock absorbers rather than full impact.

None of this made 2025 painless. Prices still rose sharply. Some importers passed on every increase. Some families, small businesses, and construction firms felt the squeeze more than others. Government policy could slow inflation, but not erase it. The relief was real, but so was the pressure.

At the same time, welfare and social assistance rose visibly as the government expanded social safety nets to cushion the most vulnerable from rising prices. While full figures were not yet available at the time of writing, the expansion of support programs underscored that the fight against inflation was being waged not only at the port but also through the social safety net.

The Meaning of 2025

While Washington exported inflation, St. John’s intercepted it through customs schedules, subsidies, and enforcement. In a year when the world’s largest economy turned inward, Antigua chose to lean outward, in a technical, deeply strategic war against imported hardship.

That choice may prove to be one of the most important decisions of 2025.