May 3, 2025 – The latest update in the global tariff war initiated by the United States is that China is evaluating the possibility of trade talks with the United States. This is the first and most unambiguous indication that Beijing may be open to dialogue if Washington demonstrates genuine sincerity with clear actions. A spokesperson from the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday that senior US officials have contacted relevant parties multiple times in recent days in the hope of starting negotiations with China on tariffs.

The spokesperson reiterated China’s long-standing stance, saying that while China is ready to engage in dialogue, it is also prepared to defend its interests fully if necessary. “China is currently assessing the situation, but our position has always been clear,” the spokesperson said. “If it’s a fight, we’ll fight to the end. If it’s a talk, the door is wide open.”

The statement emphasized that the trade and tariff conflicts were started unilaterally by the United States, and any move toward negotiation must be backed by “genuine sincerity” from Washington. That includes correcting its missteps and removing the imposed unilateral tariffs on Chinese goods.  “Saying one thing and doing another — or even trying to use talks as a cover for coercion and blackmail — won’t work with China,”

Industry experts said China’s latest remarks did not signal a softening in its position, but a strategic flexibility grounded in the need to safeguard national interests and global economic stability.

Tu Xinquan, director at the University of International Business and Economics’ China Institute for WTO Studies, said: “China’s remarks reflect a flexible posture rather than a softened stance. It is a measured stance based on a full assessment of both domestic and international conditions. The ultimate goal for the world’s two largest economies is to return to the negotiating table, as long as the US demonstrates sincerity – such as removing its unilateral tariff hikes. Otherwise, China is fully prepared to continue dealing with a prolonged trade war.” 

Xing Ziqiang, chief economist at Morgan Stanley China, predicted that the weighted average tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods may be reduced to a certain extent by the end of the second quarter. Broader tariff reductions are more likely to occur in the second half of the year, especially toward the end of the fourth quarter. According to him, the signals also reflect a global dynamic, as most countries have adopted a wait-it-out, delay, or stonewalling strategy.”The US also hopes to disrupt this balance by portraying China as already negotiating, to weaken the resolve between China and other WTO members, shaking the confidence of third parties, and thereby creating opportunities to apply pressure on China,” he said.

Washington is facing mounting pressure at home to rethink its tariff strategy. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce wrote to trade officials in the Trump administration on April 30 2025, urging the immediate implementation of “a tariff exclusion process to keep the U.S. economy from falling into a recession and inflicting irreparable harm on small businesses. “ The group asked trade officials Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer to automatically lift tariffs on all small business importers and on all products that “cannot be produced in the U.S., and to establish a process for businesses to “quickly obtain tariff exclusions.”

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned that Donald Trump’s tariff policies have had a “tremendously adverse” impact on the US economy. She cautioned that these measures risk “hobbling” US firms, especially those reliant on critical mineral imports from China.

According to Reuters, US consumer confidence fell in April to an almost five-year low due to growing pessimism about the economy’s prospects, due to tariffs.

While the US struggles to manage the fallout, companies from other countries are striving to strengthen trade ties with China. Tobias Meyer, CEO of major German logistics service provider DHL Group, said that the US’ tariff hikes is creating ample opportunities for closer cooperation between China and the European Union. He stated, “We are strong believers in the benefits of free trade. However, such a system also requires large exporters to open their markets. Against this backdrop, we expect that China’s trade with the global market, excluding the US, will continue to expand.”

According to Diego Rodriguez, Director of Logistics Practice, Americas Market Intelligence, the current Trump administration’s tariff war on China “may accelerate changes in sourcing and inventory strategies for retailers across Latin America.” He posits that as the tariff hikes reduce the flow of Chinese goods into the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Chile will experience an increase in direct trade with China as the gateway to Latin America and the Caribbean.  He states that a “logistics battle is brewing between Panama’s booming free trade zone and Peru’s Chancay (Port, which opened in November 2024), is set to redefine how goods flow into the region”.

The Government of Antigua and Barbuda and the local chamber of commerce have been in active dialogue, though separately, to find options to address and minimise the looming increase in prices that could flow into the economy due to the Trump administration’s tariff war.

 
Today (May 3), a new round of auto tariffs, 25% on parts, came into effect. In response to an NBC reporter’s question about the recessionary impact, President Trump replied that it is ” okay if tariffs lead to short-term recession”  as part of the transition.